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EC 315 Quantitative Research Methods

Cotton, Mark

**Mission Statement:**The mission of Park University, an entrepreneurial institution of learning, is to provide access to academic excellence, which will prepare learners to think critically, communicate effectively and engage in lifelong learning while serving a global community.

**Vision Statement:**Park University will be a renowned international leader in providing innovative educational opportunities for learners within the global society.

| EC 315 Statistics for Social and Administrative Sciences |

| U1J 2006 DN |

| Cotton, Mark |

| BS Geological Sciences |

| |

| --T---- |

| 5:30 - 9:50 PM |

| MA120 and CS140. 3:0:3 |

| 3 |

**Textbook:**

Lind, Marchal, and Wathen; Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics, 12th Ed., ISBN: 0072971215

Textbooks can be purchased though the MBS bookstore

Textbooks can be purchased though the Parkville Bookstore

http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/stats.html

http://www.firstgov.gov/

http://www.stats.bls.gov/

http://www.bea.gov/**Course Description:**

This intermediate level statistics course covers the fundamentals of conducting quantitative research for the social and administrative sciences. The course is organized around a research project on quantitative analysis of data. Pre-requisites: MA120 and CS140. 3:0:3

**Learning Outcomes:**

**Core Learning Outcomes**

- Write a proposal for a research project on an original multiple regression model with four independent variables.
- Gather data and research articles related to the multiple regression model.
- Use a statistical software package to regress the original model.
- Write a formal research report that defines and analyzes the evaluative information provided by a statistical software package, including the adjusted R-square, F statistic, t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity.
- Do hypothesis testing and determine confidence intervals using the t statistic. Also, conduct hypothesis testing using the F and Chi-square statistics.

**Instructor Learning Outcomes**

- Setup and evaluate confidence intervals using t-tables
- Conduct and evaluate hypothesis tests for significance
- Develop linear and multiple regressions (temporal and spatial) models.
- Collect data using library resources.

**Core Assessment:**

All

a core assessment that measures the course Learning Outcomes. The purpose of this assessment is to

determine if expectations have been met concerning mastery of learning outcomes

across all instructional modalities. For

this course, the core assessment is a research project that includes a written

proposal and final research paper. This

project is worth 20 percent of the student's final grade and will assess

students' mastery of four core learning outcomes (Learning Outcomes 1, 2, 3,

and 4 listed on this syllabus).

Link to Class Rubric**Class Assessment:**

Research Topic Proposal

EC 315: Statistics for Social and Administrative Sciences

As preparation for the final research paper, formulate an original theory about the correlation (positively or negatively) between one dependent and four independent variables. This proposal should include the following three items.

1) Purpose Statement (10 points)

In one paragraph, state your belief if the correlation between identified the primary independent variable is positive or negative.

State the correlation between the dependent variable _________, which is determined by the independent variables ________ (+ -), _________ (+ -), ___________ (+ -), and ________ (+ -).

Identify the primary independent variable:

The most important variable in this relationship is __________ because _________.”

2) Definition of Three Independent Variables (15 points)

For each variable, write one paragraph in which you define the variable and defend why it determines the dependent variable.

For the primary independent variable, you must also cite two research sources (refereed articles) that discuss the variable. The final page of your proposal should be a Works Cited page on which you list these sources in the appropriate format.

3) Data Description (10 points)

In one paragraph, describe the data and identify the data source. Include the data source on your Works Cited page. Attach a Xerox copy of the data set to the end of the proposal.

Additional criteria and considerations

1. The proposal should be typed, double-spaced, on white paper with your name in the upper right-hand corner.

2. Do not choose the unemployment rate as the dependent variable.

3. The sample size must be at least 30.

3. The data must be cross-sectional, (within the same calendar year!).

4. The data must be from a published source or from a government website only.

5. Consider how you will import the data into Excel.

6. Use the most recently available data.

7. Do not replicate an existing model.

8. Choose a topic related to your major.

9. Do not choose an identity (minus 20 points if your data set is an identity; you will then have to redefine your topic).

4) The library will give a presentation on data sources and use of the library.

NOTE: All guidelines for the proposal also apply to the final paper unless specifically mentioned in this handout.

TOPIC PROPOSAL DUE by beginning of class (6 p.m.) on due date; PROPOSAL GRADE IS ZERO after this date and time, no exceptions!!!

* Research Project Guidelines: Final Paper

EC 315 Statistics for Social and Administrative Sciences

Purpose Statement and Model

1) In the introductory paragraph, state why you have chosen to analyze the dependent variable. Then make a general statement about the model:

“The dependent variable _______ is determined by variables_____________, ________, ________, and ________.

2) In the second paragraph, identify the primary independent variable and defend why it is important.

The most important variable in this analysis is ________ because _________.” In this paragraph, cite the two research sources you've found that support your thesis, i.e., your model.

3) Write the general form of the model, with the primary independent variable as X1:

The model is:

Y-hat =

Y: brief definition of Y

X1 (name): brief definition of X1 [etc. for each variable]

Definition and names of each Variable!!

4) Define and defend all variables, including the dependent variable. State your expectations for each independent variable (one paragraph for each variable). You should address the following:

1. How is the variable defined in the data source?

2. What unit of measurement is used?

3. For the independent variables: WHY does the variable determine Y?

4. What sign do you expect for the independent variable's coefficient, positive or negative? WHY?

5) Data Description

1. In one paragraph, describe the data and identify the data source.

2. From which general source and from which specific table did you take the data? (Citing a website is not acceptable.)

3. What year(s) were the data collected for?

4. Are there any data limitations?

6) Presentation and Interpretation of Results; Write the estimated (prediction) equation:

7) Identify and interpret the adjusted R-squared (one paragraph):

1. Define “adjusted R-squared?”

2. What does the value of the adjusted R-squared reveal about the model?

3. If you have a low adjusted R-squared, how has your choice of independent variables created this result?

8) Identify and interpret: 1.The F-test using the book value (one paragraph):

2. Using the p-value approach is the null hypothesis for the F-test rejected or not rejected? Why or why not?

3. Interpret the implications of your findings for the model (write the correct hypothesis test).

9) Identify and interpret (one separate paragraph for each variable):

1. Are the signs of the coefficients as you expected?

2. For each of the coefficients, interpret the numerical value.

3. Using the p-value approach, is the null hypothesis rejected or not reject for significance for each coefficient? Why or why not? 4. Use the t-test to interpret the significance of each coefficient. 5. Use CI to interpret the significance of each coefficient. 6. Are the CI, t-test, and p-value consistent for each coefficient (why or why not)? 7. Interpret the implications of your findings for the variable.

10) Analyze multicollinearity of the independent variables (one paragraph):

1. Generate the correlation matrix.

2. Are any of the independent variables highly correlated with each other? If so, identify the variables and explain why they are correlated.

11) Use the technique for improving the results as discussed in class; Run the reduced Model and write it, discussed the Adjusted or R-squared value and model standard error of the reduce and original model (which model is best?).

Title and Format

12) Title:

Your title is: “The Relationship Between [the independent variables] and [the dependent variable]”

13) Format:

1. Typed, double-spaced on white paper; page numbers in lower right-hand corner

2. Cover sheet with title, student name, course, and date, and abstract.

3. Stapled in upper left-hand corner (This includes only the paper itself and attachments.)

4. All materials should be in a 10 x 13 inch brown envelope with your name written on the outside in the upper right-hand corner

5. Use Microsoft Word's Equation Editor for equations.

Attachments should be separate pages in this order:

6. Works Cited page (includes research and citations for data sources)

7. EXCEL spreadsheet containing your data set (one page only; 5 x 30 matrix with appropriate column and row labels)

8. Use tables output summary (one - two pages only)

9. Correlation matrix (one page only)

14) Data and Research Sources: Include in a brown large envelope:

1.Xerox copies of original data sources (from proposal)

2. Xerox copies of the specific pages cited from your research sources

3. Your proposal

Paper DEADLINE: Last day of class by 7:30 p.m.!!

**Grading:**

1) Final examination 25% (100-200pts)

2) midterm/quizzes 25% (100 pts)

2) Proposal 25% (approx 100pts)

4) Project Report 25% (approx 100 pts)

**Late Submission of Course Materials:**

No late assignments unless prior approval.

**Classroom Rules of Conduct:**

Each student is expected to conduct themselves in a professional manner and in accordance with Park policies, rules, and procedures.

**Course Topic/Dates/Assignments:**

week 1 --Discussion of Project, Introduction, Review, Chapter 13

week 2—Project; Chapter 13, 19 (time-trend only)

week 3—Project; Chapter14

week 4—Project; Chapter 14

week 5—Project Proposal due; Chapter 14

week 6—Return Project Proposal; Chapter 14

week 7—Review material and Final Project Paper

week 8--Turn-in Project; Final Exam; comprehensive

-----------------------------------------------------

* Research Topic Proposal

EC 315: Statistics for Social and Administrative Sciences

As preparation for the final research paper, formulate an original theory about the correlation (positively or negatively) between one dependent and four independent variables. This proposal should include the following three items.

1) Purpose Statement (10 points)

In one paragraph, state your belief if the correlation between identified the primary independent variable is positive or negative.

State the correlation between the dependent variable _________, which is determined by the independent variables

1) ________________ (+ -),

2) ________________ (+ -),

3) ________________ (+ -),

4) ________________ (+ -).

Identify the primary independent variable:

The most important variable in this relationship is __________ because _________.”

2) Definition of the four Independent Variables (15 points)

For each variable, write one paragraph in which you define the variable and defend why it determines the dependent variable.

For the primary independent variable, you must also cite two research sources (scholarly articles) that discuss the variable. The final page of your proposal should be a Works Cited page (MLA, APA) on which you list these sources in the appropriate format.

3) Data Description (10 points)

In one paragraph, describe the data and identify the data source. Include the data source on your Works Cited page. Attach a Xerox copy of the data set to the end of the proposal.

Additional criteria and considerations

1. The proposal shall be typed, double-spaced, on white paper with your name in the upper right-hand corner.

2. Do not choose the unemployment rate as the dependent variable.

3. The sample size must be at least 30.

3. The data must be cross-sectional, (within the same calendar year!).

4. The data must be from a published source or from a government website only.

5. Consider how you will import the data into Excel.

6. Use the most recently available data.

7. Do not replicate an existing model.

8. Choose a topic related to your major.

9. Do not choose an identity (minus 20 points if your data set is an identity; you will then have to redefine your topic).

4) The library will give a presentation on data sources and use of the library.

NOTE: All guidelines for the proposal also apply to the final paper unless specifically mentioned in this handout.

TOPIC PROPOSAL DUE by beginning of class (6 p.m.) on due date; PROPOSAL GRADE IS ZERO after this date and time, no exceptions!!! Data and Research Sources: Include in a brown large envelope

______________________________________________________

* Research Project Guidelines: Final Paper

EC 315 Statistics for Social and Administrative Sciences

Purpose Statement and Model

1) Write a one page summary of your results that includes the following

2) The importance of the dependent variable, and make a general statement about the model:

3) In the second paragraph, identify the primary independent variable and defend why it is important.

In this paragraph, cite two research sources found that support your thesis, i.e., your model.

4) Define and defend all variables, including the dependent variable. State your expectations for each independent variable (positive or negative). You should address the following:

1. How is the variable defined in the data source?

2. What unit of measurement is used?

3. For the independent variables: WHY does the variable determine Y?

5) a brief discription of the Data.

1. In one paragraph, describe the data and identify the data source.

2. From which general source and from which specific table did you take the data? (Citing a website is not acceptable.)

3. What year(s) were the data collected for?

4. Are there any data limitations?

6) Presentation and Interpretation of Results; Write the estimated (prediction) equation:

7) Identify and interpret the adjusted R-squared (one paragraph):

1. Define “adjusted R-squared?”

2. What does the value of the adjusted R-squared reveal about the model?

3. If you have a low adjusted R-squared, how has your choice of independent variables created this result?

8)Use a table format showing to

1.show the F-test using the book value

2. Using the p-value approach for the null hypothesis for the F-test to rejected or not rejected?

3. Interpret the implications of your findings for the model.

9) Identify and interpret

1. Are the signs of the coefficients as you expected?

2. For each of the coefficients, interpret the numerical value.

3. In a table format use:

1) the p-value approach; is the null hypothesis rejected or not reject for significance for each coefficient? 2. Use the t-test to interpret the significance of each coefficient to reject or not reject.

3. Use CI to interpret the significance of each coefficient to reject or not reject.

6. Are the CI, t-test, and p-value consistent for each coefficient (why or why not)?

7. Interpret the implications of your findings for the variable.

10) Analyze multicollinearity of the independent variables (one paragraph):

1. Generate the correlation matrix table.

2. Are any of the independent variables highly correlated with each other? If so, identify the variables and explain why they are correlated.

11) Use the technique for improving the results as discussed in class; Run the reduced Model and write it; discussed the Adjusted or R-squared value and model standard error of the reduce and original model (which model is best?).

Title and Format

12) Title:

Your title is: “The Relationship Between [the independent variables] and [the dependent variable]”

13) Format:

1. Typed, double-spaced on white paper; page numbers in center of page

2. Cover sheet with title, student name, course, and date, and abstract, with keywords at bottom of page

3. Stapled in upper left-hand corner (This includes only the paper itself and attachments.)

4. All materials should be in a 10 x 13 inch brown envelope with your name written on the outside in the upper right-hand corner

5. Use Microsoft Word's Equation Editor for equations.

Attachments should be separate pages in this order:

6. Works Cited page (includes research and citations for data sources)

7. EXCEL spreadsheet containing your data set (on CD): one page only; 5 x 30 matrix with appropriate column and row labels.

8. Use formatted tables for output summaries.

9. Correlation matrix (one page only)

10. Include your data with the Excel

11. Provide a histogram of each variable and the coefficient of variation for each; which has the greater variation?

14) Data and Research Sources: Include in a brown large envelope:

1.Xerox copies of original data sources (from proposal)

2. Xerox copies of the specific pages cited from your research sources

3. Your proposal

Paper DEADLINE: Last day of class by 7:30 p.m.!!

After all students have completed final exam zero

**Academic Honesty:**

Academic integrity is the foundation of the academic community. Because each student has the primary responsibility for being academically honest, students are advised to read and understand all sections of this policy relating to standards of conduct and academic life. Park University 2005-2006 Undergraduate Catalog Page 85-87

**Plagiarism:**

Plagiarism involves the use of quotations without quotation marks, the use of quotations without indication of the source, the use of another's idea without acknowledging the source, the submission of a paper, laboratory report, project, or class assignment (any portion of such) prepared by another person, or incorrect paraphrasing. Park University 2005-2006 Undergraduate Catalog Page 85-87

**Attendance Policy:**

Instructors are required to maintain attendance records and to report absences via the online attendance reporting system.

- The instructor may excuse absences for valid reasons, but missed work must be made up within the semester/term of enrollment.
- Work missed through unexcused absences must also be made up within the semester/term of enrollment, but unexcused absences may carry further penalties.
- In the event of two consecutive weeks of unexcused absences in a semester/term of enrollment, the student will be administratively withdrawn, resulting in a grade of "WH".
- A "Contract for Incomplete" will not be issued to a student who has unexcused or excessive absences recorded for a course.
- Students receiving Military Tuition Assistance or Veterans Administration educational benefits must not exceed three unexcused absences in the semester/term of enrollment. Excessive absences will be reported to the appropriate agency and may result in a monetary penalty to the student.
- Report of a "F" grade (attendance or academic) resulting from excessive absence for those students who are receiving financial assistance from agencies not mentioned in item 5 above will be reported to the appropriate agency.

Park University 2005-2006 Undergraduate Catalog Page 89

**Disability Guidelines:**

Park University is committed to meeting the needs of all students that meet the criteria for special assistance. These guidelines are designed to supply directions to students concerning the information necessary to accomplish this goal. It is Park University's policy to comply fully with federal and state law, including Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, regarding students with disabilities. In the case of any inconsistency between these guidelines and federal and/or state law, the provisions of the law will apply. Park University is committed to meeting the needs of all learners that meet the criteria for special assistance. These guidelines are designed to supply directions to learners concerning the information necessary to accomplish this goal. It is Park University's policy to comply fully with federal and state law, including Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and the American with Disabilities Act of 1990, regarding learners with disabilities and, to the extent of any inconsistency between these guidelines and federal and/or state law, the provisions of the law will apply. Additional information concerning Park University's policies and procedures related to disability can be found on the Park University web page: http://www.park.edu/disability .

**Additional Information:**

Competency | Exceeds Expectation (3) | Meets Expectation (2) | Does Not Meet Expectation (1) | No Evidence (0) |

Evaluation Outcomes 1 | Four independent variables are appropriately chosen and are measurable. | Two to three independent variables are appropriately chosen and are measurable. | One independent variable is appropriately chosen and is measurable. | No independent variables are appropriately chosen and no variables are measurable. |

Synthesis Outcomes 2 | Data for five variables are appropriate and documented; two research articles are cited. | Data for two to four variables are appropriate and documented; two research articles are cited. | Data for one variable are appropriate and documented; one research article is cited. | No data are appropriate or documented; no research articles are cited. |

Analysis Outcomes 4 | All of the following statistics are perfectly analyzed: R2, F statistic, four t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity | Three to seven of the following statistics are perfectly analyzed: R2, F statistic, four t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity | Two to one of the following statistics are perfectly analyzed: R2, F statistic, four t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity | None of the following statistics is analyzed: R2, F statistic, four t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity |

Application Outcomes 3 | All statistical results are generated with no errors. | All statistical results are generated with only one error. | All statistical results are generated with two or more errors. | Statistical results are not generated. |

Content of Communication Outcomes 4 | Works Cited page is properly formatted and complete. | Works Cited page has one to two errors. | Works Cited page has three or more errors. | Works Cited page is not present. |

Technical Skill in Communicating Outcomes 4 | All of the following statistics are perfectly defined: R2, F statistic, t statistic, and correlation coefficients/multicollinearity | Two to three of the following statistics are correctly defined: R2, F statistic, t statistic, and correlation coefficients/multicollinearity | One of the following statistics is correctly defined: R2, F statistic, t statistic, and correlation coefficients/multicollinearity | None of the following statistics is defined: R2, F statistic, t statistic, and correlation coefficients/multicollinearity |

First Disciplinary Competency Outcomes 4 | The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is perfectly defined and analyzed for all four t-tests. | The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is defined and analyzed for two to three t-tests. | The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is defined and analyzed for one t-test. | The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is not defined or analyzed for any t-test. |

Second Disciplinary Competency Outcomes 4 | The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is perfectly defined and analyzed for the F-test. | The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is defined and analyzed with at least one error for the F-test. | The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is not defined and analyzed with at least one error for the F-test. | The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is neither defined nor analyzed for the F-test. |

**Copyright:**

**Last Updated:***4/10/2006 2:50:25 PM*