EC 315 Quantitative Research Methods
F1J 2006 PV
Kelsay, Michael P.
PhD Economics University of TennesseeMA Economics University of Missouri - Kansas CityBA Economics University of Missouri - Kansas City
21 August - 10 October 2006
5:30 - 9:50 PM
MA120 and CS 140
Textbook: Soule, Peter, GUIDE to STATISTICAL ANALYSIS for Business and Social Sciences Using SPSS Version 12.0 and Microsoft Excel. ISBN 0-07-312532-6 McGraw-Hill 2005. The text is referred to as "Guide."
Textbooks can be purchased though the MBS bookstore
Textbooks can be purchased though the Parkville Bookstore
Additional Resources: Scientific Calculator. [This calculator must have the ability to raise a number to a power other than two. Such calculators usually have an Yx or Xy function. The cost is apporximately $20.
McAfee Memorial Library - Online information, links, electronic databases and the Online catalog. Contact the library for further assistance via email or at 800-270-4347.Career Counseling - The Career Development Center (CDC) provides services for all stages of career development. The mission of the CDC is to provide the career planning tools to ensure a lifetime of career success.Park Helpdesk - If you have forgotten your OPEN ID or Password, or need assistance with your PirateMail account, please email firstname.lastname@example.org or call 800-927-3024Resources for Current Students - A great place to look for all kinds of information http://www.park.edu/Current/.
The purpose of this course is to provide students with the quantitative skills that are necessary for doing apppied work. In order to accomplish that goal, the teacher must facilitate learning and the student must learn the required materials. This requires feedback from the student to the teacher. This feedback occurs in written work and classroom discussion.
The homework is intended to assess what students know and what they are uncertain about. Homework is graded liberally and based on effort while the examinations and papers are graded on achievement.
Learning Outcomes: Core Learning Outcomes
DESCRIPTION OF CORE ASSESSMENT FOR EC 315:
All Park University courses must include a core assessment that measures the course Learning Outcomes. The purpose of this assessment is to determine if expectations have been met concerning mastery of learning outcomes across all instructional modalities. For this course, the core assessment is a research project that includes a written proposal and final research paper. This project is worth 20 percent of the student's final grade and will assess students' mastery of four core learning outcomes (Learning Outcomes 1, 2, 3, and 4 listed on this syllabus).
Research Topic Proposal
As preparation for the final research paper, formulate an original theory about the correlation between four measurable independent variables (causes) and one measurable dependent variable (the effect). This proposal should include the following four items.
1) Purpose Statement
In one paragraph, state the correlation and identify the primary independent variable.
State the correlation:
“The dependent variable _______ is determined by independent variables ________, _________, ________, and ________.
Identify the primary independent variable:
The most important independent variable in this relationship is ________ because _________.”
2) Definition of Variables
For each variable, write a single definition paragraph (five paragraphs total). They should be in this order: dependent variable, primary independent variable, and remaining three independent variables.
In addition to defining the independent variables, you must defend why each determines the dependent variable.
For the primary independent variable, you must also cite two research sources that discuss the variable. The sources need not be technical documents. List these sources on the Works Cited Page.
3) Data Description
You must have at least 30 observations of cross-sectional data for each of the five variables. Thus for the final paper, you will have a data matrix that is at least 30 rows by 5 columns.
In one paragraph, describe the data (i.e., which government agency supplies the data, what methods are used to compile them, when they were collected, etc.) and identify the specific data sources, including table numbers. Include the data sources on your Works Cited page. Attach a Xerox copy of the data set to the end of the proposal.
4) Works Cited Page
The final page of your proposal should be a Works Cited page on which you list the two research sources for the primary independent variable in the appropriate format. You should also list the data sources, with a separate citation for each table of data.
Purpose Statement and Model
1) In the introductory paragraph, state why you have chosen to analyze the dependent variable. Then make a general statement about the model:
“The dependent variable _______ is determined by variables ________, ________, ________, and ________.
2) In the second paragraph, identify the primary independent variable and defend why it is important.
The most important variable in this analysis is ________ because _________. In this paragraph, cite and discuss the two research sources you've found that support your thesis, i.e., your model. (Definitions or citations from encyclopedias are not acceptable.)
3) Write the general form of the model, with the primary independent variable as X1:
The model is:
Y: brief definition of Y
X1: brief definition of X1 [etc. for each variable]
4) Define and defend all variables, including the dependent variable. State your expectations for each independent variable. (one paragraph for each variable, in numerical order, i.e., X1 first, then X2, etc.)You should address the following:
< How is the variable defined in the data source?
< What unit of measurement is used?
< For the independent variables: WHY does the variable determine Y?
< What sign do you expect for the independent variable's coefficient, positive or negative? WHY?
5) In one paragraph, describe the data and identify the data sources.
< From which general sources and from which specific tables did you take the data? (Citing a website is not acceptable.)
< What year or years were the data collected?
< Are there any data limitations?
6) Write the estimated (prediction) equation:
The results are:
7) Identify and interpret the adjusted R2 (one paragraph):
< Define “adjusted R2.”
< What does the value of the adjusted R2 reveal about the model?
< If you have a low adjusted R2, how has your choice of independent variables created this result?
8) Identify and interpret the F test (one paragraph):
< Using the p-value approach, is the null hypothesis for the F test rejected or not rejected? Why or why not?
< Interpret the implications of your findings for the model.
9) Identify and interpret the t tests for each of the coefficients (one separate paragraph for each variable, in numerical order):
< Are the signs of the coefficients as you expected? If not, why not?
< For each of the coefficients, interpret the numerical value.
< Using the p-value approach, is the null hypothesis for the t test rejected or not rejected for each coefficient? Why or why not?
< Interpret the implications of your findings for the variable.
< Identify the variable with the greatest significance.
10) Analyze multicollinearity of the independent variables (one paragraph):
< Generate the correlation matrix.
< Define multicollinearity.
< Are any of the independent variables highly correlated with each other? If so, identify the variables and explain why they are correlated.
< State the implications of multicollinearity (if found) for your model.
11) Other (not required):
< If you use any of the techniques for improving results discussed in class, discuss these at the end of the paper.
Works Cited Page
Use the proper format to list the works cited under two headings:
12) Research: two sources
13) Data: a separate citation for each variable
Link to Class RubricClass Assessment:
Problem Sets: Problem sets are graded liberally and a solution set will be provided to the students. The purpose of the problem sets is to assess your learning of the material. The completion of the problems sets will facilitate your success on the examinations. Should you have any questions about the problem sets, you will need to get it resolved before the examinations.
Examinations: The examinations will be primarily composed of applications and interpretations, in addition to a small set of multiple choice and/or true false questions. The only refererence allowed during the examinations will be the GUIDE.
Term Project: The term project involves proposing a model and then writing a formal proposal for the research it involves. The student will use Excel to regress data for their model. The student will analyze the computer output and write and submit a written report. See Guide for details on the various requirements for the written paper. Each item turned in will have a cover paper with the student's name.
Oral Report: See additional Oral Report requirements and suggestions in Chapter 14 of the Guide, along with an Oral Report Checklist
PowerPoint presentations should follow the 3-5-7 rule. No more than 3 main points per slide, no more than 5 lines of dense text, and no more than seven words per line.
Evaluation Item Percent Points
Homework 10% 100
Term Project Topic and Feasibility Paper 3% 30
Term Project Proposal 10% 100
Mid-Term Examination 20% 200
Term Project Report 20% 200
Oral Report on Term Project 7% 70
Final Examination 30% 300
TOTAL 100% 1000
Grading Scale: A = 90-100; B = 80-89; C = 70-79; D = 60-69; F = 0-59.
Late Submission of Course Materials:
Problem sets are due at the start of class one week after it is assigned. Place the problem sets on the instructor's desk as you enter the classroom. The solutions will be passed out at the beginning of class and discussed. Homework turned in late will be grade for completeness and will be given a maximum grade of 50%.
A studnet that misses an examination is allowed to make up the examination. The make up examinations will be a different format that the in class examinations.
COURSE CONTENT AND CLASS SCHEDULE
DATE SUBJECT GUIDE STUDY PAGES
Week 1 Introduction to Regression 1-5, 7-8, 170-178
(Project Topic and Feasibility Paper)
Week 2 Excel Regression 84-98, 124-141, 208-211
Week 3 Statistical Significance 142-154, 154-169
Week 4 MIDTERM EXAMINATION All Previous References
Week 5 Normal Distribution/ Sampling Distributions 13-16
Hypothesis Testing, Confidence Intervals 17-28
Paired Difference Tests 43-46
Week 6 Large Sample Test and Confidence Interval 29-36
Small Sample Test and Confidence Interval 36-48
(Term Project Written Proposal Due)
Week 7 F Test of Variance between Two Samples 49-52
ANOVA and Goodness of Fit Tests 52-57, 74-79
Week 8 Final Examination All Previous References
Academic Honesty:Academic integrity is the foundation of the academic community. Because each student has the primary responsibility for being academically honest, students are advised to read and understand all sections of this policy relating to standards of conduct and academic life. Park University 2006-2007 Undergraduate Catalog Page 87-89
Plagiarism:Plagiarism involves the use of quotations without quotation marks, the use of quotations without indication of the source, the use of another's idea without acknowledging the source, the submission of a paper, laboratory report, project, or class assignment (any portion of such) prepared by another person, or incorrect paraphrasing. Park University 2006-2007 Undergraduate Catalog Page 87
Attendance Policy:Instructors are required to maintain attendance records and to report absences via the online attendance reporting system.
Park University 2006-2007 Undergraduate Catalog Page 89-90
Disability Guidelines:Park University is committed to meeting the needs of all students that meet the criteria for special assistance. These guidelines are designed to supply directions to students concerning the information necessary to accomplish this goal. It is Park University's policy to comply fully with federal and state law, including Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, regarding students with disabilities. In the case of any inconsistency between these guidelines and federal and/or state law, the provisions of the law will apply. Additional information concerning Park University's policies and procedures related to disability can be found on the Park University web page: http://www.park.edu/disability .
Additional Information:The final examination is not a take home test. The final is closed book and closed notes.
Last Updated:8/21/2006 3:05:00 PM