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EC 315 Quantitative Research Methods
Ogilvy, Tom


Mission Statement: The mission of Park University, an entrepreneurial institution of learning, is to provide access to academic excellence, which will prepare learners to think critically, communicate effectively and engage in lifelong learning while serving a global community.

Vision Statement: Park University will be a renowned international leader in providing innovative educational opportunities for learners within the global society.

Course

EC 315 Quantitative Research Methods

Semester

S2F 2007 MY

Faculty

Ogilvy, Tom

Title

Adjunct Faculty

Degrees/Certificates

BS General Engineering, United States Military Academy
MS Operations Analysis (ORSA), Naval Postgraduate School

Office Location

Ft Myers Education Center

Office Hours

By Appointment

Daytime Phone

703.614.1228

Other Phone

703.425.5596

E-Mail

tom.ogilvy@park.edu

twogilvy@msn.com

Semester Dates

19 March - 19 May 2007

Class Days

M------

Class Time

5:00 - 10:00 PM

Prerequisites

CS140, MA120

Credit Hours

3


Textbook:
Soule, Peter, Guide to Guide to Quantitative Research Methods Using SPSS Version 14.0 and Microsoft Excel.  ISBN 007339629X, McGraw-Hill 2004.  (referred to as GUIDE below)

Textbooks can be purchased through the MBS bookstore

Textbooks can be purchased through the Parkville Bookstore

Additional Resources:

Hacker, Diana.  Rules for Writers. (Style Manual).  Any style manual with APA style for References and in-text citations may be substituted

Students must have a scientific calculator in class and for exams.  Students will require access to Microsoft Excel for out of classroom work.  This software is installed on computers normally available in campus computer centers if the student does not have access elsewhere. 

 

 

McAfee Memorial Library - Online information, links, electronic databases and the Online catalog. Contact the library for further assistance via email or at 800-270-4347.
Career Counseling - The Career Development Center (CDC) provides services for all stages of career development.  The mission of the CDC is to provide the career planning tools to ensure a lifetime of career success.
Park Helpdesk - If you have forgotten your OPEN ID or Password, or need assistance with your PirateMail account, please email helpdesk@park.edu or call 800-927-3024
Resources for Current Students - A great place to look for all kinds of information http://www.park.edu/Current/.

http://www.park.edu/virginia
http://www.park.edu/library/index.asp
http://www.quantico.usmc-mccs.org/quanticolibrary.htm
http://www.fmmcmwr.com/librarymyer.htm
http://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/erp06.pdf
http://www.economagic.com

Course Description:
This intermediate level statistics course covers the fundamentals of conducting quantitative research for the social and administrative sciences. The course is organized around a research project on quantitative analysis of data. PREREQUISITES: MA 120 and CS 140. 3:0:3

Educational Philosophy:

The instructor's educational philosophy is to teach the academic material in a manner and at a pace that is conducive to learning for the majority of the class.  Information provided will identify base concepts with examples worked to show practical application of concepts to representative real world problems.  Students are expected to be active participants in the learning process though interaction in the classroom and preparation for class by performing assigned readings and working any assigned problems.

Learning Outcomes:
  Core Learning Outcomes

  1. Write a proposal for a research project on an original multiple regression model with four independent variables.
  2. Gather data and research articles related to the multiple regression model.
  3. Use a statistical software package to regress the original model.
  4. Write a formal research report that defines and analyzes the evaluative information provided by a statistical software package, including the adjusted R-square, F statistic, t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity.
  5. Do hypothesis testing and determine confidence intervals using the t statistic. Also, conduct hypothesis testing using the F and Chi-square statistics.


  Instructor Learning Outcomes
  1. 6.  Give an oral report to the class on the research paper
Core Assessment:

DESCRIPTION OF CORE ASSESSMENT FOR EC 315:


All Park University courses must include a core assessment that measures the course's Core Learning Outcomes.  The purpose of this assessment is to determine if expectations have been met concerning mastery of learning outcomes across all instructional modalities.  For this course, the core assessment is a research project that includes a written proposal and final research paper.  This project is worth 20 percent of the student's final grade and will assess students' mastery of four Core Learning Outcomes (outcomes 1, 2, 3, and 4 listed on this syllabus). Although guidelines for the research proposal are listed below, the Core Assessment Rubric refers to the grading of the final research paper only.


Research Topic Proposal


As preparation for the final research paper, formulate an original theory about the correlation between four measurable independent variables (causes) and one measurable dependent variable (the effect).  The topic proposal should include the following four items which serve as the foundation for the final research paper after instructor feedback is given.


1)  Purpose Statement 


In one paragraph, state the correlation and identify the primary independent variable.


State the correlation:


“The dependent variable _______ is determined by independent variables ________, _________, ________, and ________.”


Identify and defend the “primary” independent variable, or the variable believed to have the strongest impact on the dependent variable:


 “The most important independent variable in this relationship is ________ because _________.”


2)  Definition of Variables 


For each variable, write a single definition paragraph (five paragraphs total).  Paragraphs should be in this order: dependent variable, primary independent variable, and remaining three independent variables.


In addition to defining the independent variables, defend why each determines the dependent variable.


For the primary independent variable, at least two research sources that discuss the variable also must be cited.  These sources need not be technical documents but should contain evidence to justify the relationship between the primary independent variable and the dependent variable.  List these sources on the Works Cited (reference) page.  Citations from encyclopedias, abstracts, or non-governmental websites are not acceptable research sources.


3)  Data Description


For each of the five variables, at least 30 observations of cross-sectional data must be obtained.  Thus for the final research paper, a data matrix that is at least 30 rows by five columns must be presented.


In one paragraph, identify the data sources and describe the data (i.e., which government agencies supply the data, which methods are used to compile them, when they were collected, etc.).  Attach a Xerox copy of the original data tables from which the data will be compiled after the proposal is reviewed and approved by the instructor. 


4) Works Cited Page


The final page of the proposal should be a Works Cited page listing the two research sources for the primary independent variable and the data sources, with a separate citation for each table of data, including specific table numbers for each of the five sources.  The appropriate format should be employed (see below).


Final Research Paper

Purpose Statement and Model


1) In the introductory paragraph, state why the dependent variable has been chosen for analysis.  Then make a general statement about the model:


The dependent variable _______ is determined by variables ________, ________, ________, and ________.”


2) In the second paragraph, identify the primary independent variable and defend why it is important.


“The most important variable in this analysis is ________ because _________.”   In this paragraph, cite and discuss the two research sources that support the thesis, i.e., the model. 


3) Write the general form of the model, with the primary independent variable as X1:


The model is:


Y =


Where 

Y: brief definition of Y


X1: brief definition of X1  [etc. for each variable]


Definition of Variables

4) Define and defend all variables, including the dependent variable, in a single paragraph for each variable.  Also, state the expectations for each independent variable.  These paragraphs should be in numerical order, i.e., dependent variable, X1, then X2, etc.  


In each paragraph, the following should be addressed:


<        How is the variable defined in the data source?


<        Which unit of measurement is used?


<        For the independent variables: why does the variable determine Y?


<        What sign is expected for the independent variable's coefficient, positive or negative?  Why?


Data Description

5) In one paragraph, describe the data and identify the data sources. 


<        From which general sources and from which specific tables are the data taken? (Citing a website is not acceptable.)


<        Which year or years were the data collected?


<        Are there any data limitations?


Presentation and Interpretation of Results
 

6) Write the estimated (prediction) equation:


The results are:


 =


7) Identify and interpret the adjusted R2 (one paragraph):


<        Define “adjusted R2.”


<        What does the value of the adjusted R2 reveal about the model?


<        If the adjusted R2 is low, how has the choice of independent variables created this result?


8) Identify and interpret the F test (one paragraph):


<        Using the p-value approach, is the null hypothesis for the F test rejected or not rejected?  Why or why not?


<        Interpret the implications of these findings for the model.


9) Identify and interpret the t tests for each of the coefficients (one separate paragraph for each variable, in numerical order):


<        Are the signs of the coefficients as expected?  If not, why not?


<        For each of the coefficients, interpret the numerical value.


<        Using the p-value approach, is the null hypothesis for the t test rejected or not rejected for each coefficient?  Why or why not?


<        Interpret the implications of these findings for the variable.


<        Identify the variable with the greatest significance.


10) Analyze multicollinearity of the independent variables (one paragraph):


<        Generate the correlation matrix.


<        Define multicollinearity.


<        Are any of the independent variables highly correlated with each other?  If so, identify the variables and explain why they are correlated.


<        State the implications of multicollinearity (if found) for the model.


11) Other (not required):


<        If any additional techniques for improving results are employed, discuss these at the end of the paper.


Works Cited Page


12) Use the proper format to list the works cited under two headings:


 Research:  two sources


 Data: a separate citation for each of the five variables

Link to Class Rubric

Class Assessment:

Term Project.  The term project involves proposing a model andthen writing a formal proposal for the research it involves.  The student will use Excel to regress data for their model.  The student will then analyze the computer output and write and submit for grading a written report using the APAformat for in-text citations and the References page.  See GUIDE for details onthevarious requirements for the written papers.  Each item turned in will have the name of the student on the first page.  The term project will also be submitted in electronic format  (floppy drive or CD) including an Excel file with the source data and processed output.   See formats prescribed above for the Topic Proposal and Final Research Paper

Oral Report.  See additional Oral Report requirements and suggestions in Chapter 14 of the GUIDE, along with the Oral Report Checklist. 

Examinations.  Examinations will primarily include problem solving and may include multiple choice or true false quesitons.  Problems will be consistent with class examples and homework problems.  Both the midterm and final examination will be open notes and the GUIDE may be used as well. 

 

Grading:

Term Project Topic and Feasibility Paper  5% 

Term Project Proposal  10%

Quizzes  30%

Term Project Final Research Paper 20%

Oral Report on Term Project 10%

Final Exam  25%

 

Grading Scale  A = 93 - 100; B = 82 - <93; C = 65 - <82; D = 60 - <65; F = 0 - <60

 

All final exams will be comprehensive and will be closed book and closed notes.  If calculators are allowed, they will not be multifunctional electronic devices that include features such as: phones, cameras, instant messaging, pagers, and so forth.  Electronic Computers will not be allowed on final exams unless an exception is made by the Associate Dean.

Late Submission of Course Materials:
All written requirements must be turned in on time.  A late submission will receive a maximum grade of C (if perfect - grades decline from there).

Classroom Rules of Conduct:

Class Participation is expected.  Students are expected to attend all classes and be on time.  Roll will be checked each class meeting.  Classes missed for legitimate reasons, such as illness, temporary duty, are excusable; however, the student must notify the instructor (prior to the class to be missed if possible) and make up the missed work as follows:  Read and be responsible for assigned readings/course content and work assigned problems.  If a test is to be missed it must be taken before the scheduled test date.  If this is impossible, it must be taken before the class begins the week following the scheduled test date or a grade of zero (0) will be assigned for that exam.  It is the student's responsibility to contact the instructor and arrange to take the exam.  The final exam must be completed and turned in prior to 10 PM on 14 May 2007.

Emails to the instructor should start with

EC315:

as the first part of the subject line followed by the subject of your email.

 

Course Topic/Dates/Assignments:

EC 315

COURSE CONTENT AND CLASS SCHEDULE

Date

Subject

Assignments/Exams

GUIDE STUDY PAGES

Mar 19, 2007
Week 1

Introduction to Regression,

 

Ch1, Ch7, Ch13

Mar 26, 2007
Week 2

Excel Regression, Multiple Regression

Project Topic and Feasibility Paper Due,

Ch8, Ch10

April 2, 2007
Week 3

Statistical Significance, Regression

 

Ch11, Ch12, Ch14

April 9, 2007
Week 4

Hypothesis Testing, Confidence Interval

 

Ch2, Ch5 (74-81), Ch14

April 16, 2007
Week 5

Large/Small Sample Test and Confidence Interval,

Term Project Written Proposal Due,

Ch3, Ch5 (82-85)

April 23, 2007
Week 6

F Test, ANOVA and Goodness of Fit Tests,

 

Ch4, Ch15

April 30, 2007
Week 7

Review of selected statistical topics

 

All previous chapters

May 7, 2007
Week 8

 

Oral Reports Due
Term Project Final Research Report Due,

 

May 14, 2007
Week 9

Final Exam,

Final Examination
(Weeks 1 - 8),

All previous references,


Academic Honesty:
Academic integrity is the foundation of the academic community. Because each student has the primary responsibility for being academically honest, students are advised to read and understand all sections of this policy relating to standards of conduct and academic life.   Park University 2006-2007 Undergraduate Catalog Page 87-89

Plagiarism:
Plagiarism involves the use of quotations without quotation marks, the use of quotations without indication of the source, the use of another's idea without acknowledging the source, the submission of a paper, laboratory report, project, or class assignment (any portion of such) prepared by another person, or incorrect paraphrasing. Park University 2006-2007 Undergraduate Catalog Page 87

Attendance Policy:
Instructors are required to maintain attendance records and to report absences via the online attendance reporting system.

  1. The instructor may excuse absences for valid reasons, but missed work must be made up within the semester/term of enrollment.
  2. Work missed through unexcused absences must also be made up within the semester/term of enrollment, but unexcused absences may carry further penalties.
  3. In the event of two consecutive weeks of unexcused absences in a semester/term of enrollment, the student will be administratively withdrawn, resulting in a grade of "W".
  4. A "Contract for Incomplete" will not be issued to a student who has unexcused or excessive absences recorded for a course.
  5. Students receiving Military Tuition Assistance or Veterans Administration educational benefits must not exceed three unexcused absences in the semester/term of enrollment. Excessive absences will be reported to the appropriate agency and may result in a monetary penalty to the student.
  6. Report of a "F" grade (attendance or academic) resulting from excessive absence for those students who are receiving financial assistance from agencies not mentioned in item 5 above will be reported to the appropriate agency.

Park University 2006-2007 Undergraduate Catalog Page 89-90

Disability Guidelines:
Park University is committed to meeting the needs of all students that meet the criteria for special assistance. These guidelines are designed to supply directions to students concerning the information necessary to accomplish this goal. It is Park University's policy to comply fully with federal and state law, including Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, regarding students with disabilities. In the case of any inconsistency between these guidelines and federal and/or state law, the provisions of the law will apply. Additional information concerning Park University's policies and procedures related to disability can be found on the Park University web page: http://www.park.edu/disability .



Rubric

CompetencyExceeds Expectation (3)Meets Expectation (2)Does Not Meet Expectation (1)No Evidence (0)
Evaluation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
Outcomes
1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Four independent variables are appropriately chosen and are measurable. Two to three independent variables are appropriately chosen and are measurable. One independent variable is appropriately chosen and is measurable. No independent variable is appropriately chosen and no variable is measurable. 
Synthesis                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
Outcomes
2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Data for five variables are appropriate and documented; two research articles are cited. Data for two to four variables are appropriate and documented; two research articles are cited. Data for one variable are appropriate and documented; OR less than two research articles are cited. No data are appropriate or documented; no research articles are cited. 
Analysis                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
Outcomes
4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
All of the following statistics are perfectly analyzed: R2, F statistic, four t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity Three to seven of the following statistics are perfectly analyzed: R2, F statistic, four t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity Less than three of the following statistics are perfectly analyzed: R2, F statistic, four t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity None of the following statistics is analyzed: R2, F statistic, four t statistics, and correlation coefficients for multicollinearity 
Application                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Outcomes
3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
All statistical results are generated with no errors. All statistical results are generated with only one error. All statistical results are generated with two or more errors. Statistical results are not generated. 
Content of Communication                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
Outcomes
4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Works Cited page is properly formatted and complete. Works Cited page has one to two errors. Works Cited page has three or more errors. Works Cited page is not present. 
Technical Skill in Communicating                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
Outcomes
4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
All of the following statistics are perfectly defined: R2, F statistic, t statistic, and correlation coefficients/multicollinearity Two to three of the following statistics are correctly defined: R2, F statistic, t statistic, and correlation coefficients/multicollinearity One of the following statistics is correctly defined: R2, F statistic, t statistic, and correlation coefficients/multicollinearity None of the following statistics is defined: R2, F statistic, t statistic, and correlation coefficients/multicollinearity 
First Disciplinary Competency                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
Outcomes
4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is perfectly defined and analyzed for all four t-tests. The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is correctly defined and analyzed for two to three t-tests. The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is correctly defined and analyzed for one t-test. The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is not defined or analyzed for any t-test. 
Second Disciplinary Competency                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Outcomes
4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is perfectly defined and analyzed for the F-test. The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is defined and analyzed with at least one error for the F-test. The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is not defined and analyzed with at least one error for the F-test. The p-value approach to hypothesis testing is neither defined nor analyzed for the F-test. 

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Last Updated:2/15/2007 9:06:36 AM